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So the probability of nuclear war by miscalculation or accident or blunder or ignorance or ego grows also. In 2019, Martin Hellman, Senior Fellow for Nuclear Risk Analysis, Federation of American (Atomic) Scientists, estimated the probability at roughly 20% per century.[1] So the probability of no nuclear war in any century may be about 80%. For three centuries, that probability is 80% x 80% x 80% = 50%. Thus the half-life[2] of a nuclear civilization may be roughly three centuries. Hellman concludes, “Continued possession of nuclear weapons makes nuclear war inevitable.”
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I need to focus on studying and advocating that our society begin building Sharp’s civilian defense (related to “unarmed civilian protection”). It is the key to preventing future coups d’etat, Trump or otherwise, as well as to abolishing nuclear weapons, and abolishing war itself. The nuclear weapons part will be the most difficult, because we are so addicted to the benefits of our empire. I suspect that we can do this only with the help, and by the grace, of God.
Peace and blessings
Lorin
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[1] “Rethinking National Security”
[2] Half-life of a decaying isotope is defined as the time in which exactly half of that isotope decays